Liam's 11th Birthday message

Happy Birthday Liam. This dissertation is our birthday present for you.  You also now have some more Frituck shares. You might think it is not much of a present but if you think through what Laprin has to say it will help you to make good decisions in the difficult times ahead. My generation enjoyed a free lunch now your generation  is going to have to pay for it, and it will not be cheap!

I hope you have a happy eleventh birthday, Liam, despite that bit of sour reality from DA. I expect that you know enough about what is happening in this crazy world to take what DA and I have to say with a pinch of salt. Actually, a pinch of salt is better for your health than the garbage Brumby and Baillieu have been dispensing. Surprisingly, The Greens is throwing in some sense about food, despite his hat and his yelling. People get quite upset when they do not get enough to eat. Billions are having that problem in far off lands but we only occasionally hear about that in our media. What happened in Pakistan due to the floods is an example of what has been happening regularly in many countries for ages. The Greens points out that Australia’s turn is coming but many will not listen to them because they are more concerned with what is happening to the environment. The city folk rule the roost – while the country folk continue to send them food. They will be changing their tune soon.

Laprin,did you know that Liam is in the Australian youth choir and plays a number of instruments?

That is marvellous, Liam.  Having stimulating activities like that combined with the joy of family and friends will give you a quality of living despite the coming problems. Keep those good things in mind when you have troubles. End of lecture! We had better move on to what is happening and what it is telling us. The coming Victorian election has the politicians making a lot of promises.

 Brumby and Baillieu are having an interesting talk fest with the Greens as well as making those promises. Doubtless you will be able to look back in a few years and wonder how they could possibly have made those promises. Of course, they always talk in terms of the money cost without consideration of what is really possible, given the real ecological cost.  Liam, who do you think will form the new government? We should know in a few days. Now back to Laprin.

I expect that we are seeing political chaos because so many electors are bewildered about what is happening and want leaders who can do something about this. There has been a lot of talk about climate change. Our politicians have argued the toss about what should be done about reducing emissions so the populace do not know how far they should go in becoming green and what the price will be. I expect it will be quite a few years before they realize that they have been conned. Sadly, there is nothing Australians can do about stopping global warming. Stopping fossil fuel emissions from the power plants and planting trees will have essentially no influence on the rapid climate change that is already have a big impact around the world. Even if the big emitters such as China and the US cut back rapidly, it would only slow down the warming slightly.  Our parties, including the Greens, would do a lot better by following the advice of the Greenhouse Office and  institute measures to adapt to the irrevocable rapid  climate change. The drought could well have been made worse by climate change but the politicians have dropped that off their agenda since we have gone from drought to floods in recent months. They ignore the fact that this is almost certainly due to a la Nina that will end shortly. We can probably look forward to another dry spell with the catchment levels dropping again and the Murray-Darling problem re-surfacing. However, the politicians have put these matters in the too hard basket as they strive to retain their cushy jobs in parliament.

I expect there has been quite a bit of discussion at your school about these topic. I would be interested in knowing the attitude of your teachers. Do they have more understanding of what is happening than the politicians? Do they tell you about the dangers in fast food?

I notice that in America there is an emerging ‘slow food’ movement. They tell of the many toxic products used in the fast foods to provide the taste that sells! They say that it is not surprising that cancer, diabetes and other health problems are growing rapidly, particularly in the young.

I read recently about a prominent American actor who was worried about this issue. He avoided fast food and had what he considered to be a healthy diet but he wanted to be sure that he did not have any problems. He paid a large sum of money to have his blood analysed. He was horrified to learn that there were many toxic products in his bloodstream, even though he avoided the fast food.

It is not surprising that life expectancy is declining in America. It is ironic that ‘fast foods’ originated in the States and have spread globally. McDonalds are opening up many outlets in China as many of the increasingly wealthy Chinese turn from their traditional healthy foods in pursuit of the life style they see on TV. Now the Americans are reversing direction with the ‘slow food’ revolution. I wonder how long it will be before the Chinese wake up to what they are doing wrong with what they eat.

Of course, Liam, most Chinese are poor and live in rural communities and have the traditional diet based on rice because they cannot afford the sort of food that the middle classes in the cities can now partake of in restaurants and from fast food outlets.

DA, I believe we should move on in order to provide perspective. There has been little in the media in recent times on the oil supply problem.  This is because the price of fuel has not shot up yet. But that will come. Did you know,  Liam, that about four hundred billion barrels of oil have gone up in smoke in your lifetime? That is a lot of irreplaceable natural capital that people have blithely used in cars, trucks, ships, airliners and in the production of food. There seems to be the common belief that there is an inexhaustible supply. We know better than that, don’t we, Liam.

We have mentioned the oil problem before and you may wonder why you have not seen more indications of the warnings we have been making. There are numerous signs that people and industry are waking up to this problem although they do not say it is because oil is running out.

I expect bike riding is becoming more popular for a number of reasons, including reducing the use of cars because petrol price has risen so they save a bit as the economy tightens. They are not doing it because they realize that oil is running out. Big cars are becoming less popular amongst the public and even electric cars are making an appearance. These trends will continue but they will be driven by pricing and the general view of what is happening. They lack the understanding that I expect you now have, Liam, that the days of easy motorized transport are declining for fundamental reasons, oil is running out and what is left is hard to extract. It is ironic that the recent Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has not woken many people up to the fact that oil is running out. But that is enough about oil for now.

Hang on, Laprin! There is an interesting aspect you have not mentioned. As you know, Liam, there has been a lot of talk about the impact of the mining boom in this country. Companies are making a lot of money by mining iron ore, coal, uranium and other minerals for export, largely to China. The mining, transportation and processing of the ore requires a lot of heavy machinery using a lot of fuel, mainly diesel. They will be running into problems in the near future as the price rises.

That is very true, DA, as the shortage of fuel will be a world-wide problem so money will not be the answer for many. The Chinese will want to get their fair share despite what the Americans are doing in the Middle East to make up for the fact that they have used up most of their own supply. Moving on now to other matters, I am sure Liam knows a lot about iPhones and all the other electronic gadgetry flooding the market.

I am bemused by most of it and often have to get help from Jacqui and Liam. However, I expect that Laprin has raised this issue for another reason.

Quite right, DA. The manufacture of this gadgetry requires the supply of many materials, including what are called the rare earth minerals. There are quite a few of them and they play a crucial role and they are running out. The Chinese are the main source of these minerals and they now want most of their production for their developing industry.  Businesses in countries such as Australia are looking at mining these minerals but it is a difficult business using a lot of energy and other resources that are becoming scarce. I have no doubt that there are many earnest people looking at how this problem can be overcome but it is quite certain that there will be problems in the electronic industry and the era of ever-new electronic gadgetry will come to an end. How will people cope, Liam, when it is very difficult to do on line trading so you have to go to shops but you can no longer afford to run a car? Don’t you think it would be a good idea to rapidly improve public transport?

Leaving aside the fun and games young people have with these electronics, think about how dependent businesses and the general community have become on their computers, mobile phones and other electronics.  What will they do as this capability declines because some of the replacement materials are running out? A lot of fuss is being made about the introduction of digital TV but I wonder what will be happening by the time you are building up your career and establishing a home for your family.

I think, DA, that we have given Liam enough to think about. There will be many problems emerging that are beyond the ken of the ’leaders’ of society. You have described in The Way Ahead what can be done to cope with the trying times ahead. Your Gaia and Tityas should be available as an ebook and on kindle soon so, hopefully, many people will be able to gain some understanding of what lies ahead from what your research has uncovered.

My main legacy will be my writings, even if most of them do not get published. Which reminds me, I have better get on with editing What went wrong? The misdirection of civilization. The publishers are being patient but I would like to see it as a book so at least family and friends can have as a memento of my research. The Frituck shares could well become a worthwhile financial legacy as the economy goes into decline. I often wonder how the politicians will explain what went wrong. No doubt, they will come up with some spiel while still enjoying the use of a government car!

What about your latest book, DA. It appeared at the Beijing Book Show? Does Liam know about it?

I sent a copy of one of the essays in it, The Way Ahead, to the family some time ago. I have had no feedback so I do not know whether anyone has read it. It is not too long and makes some suggestions about how to cope with the powering down. The Book Show was on 30th August and lasted a week. The Chinese may show some interest in due course.

Did you know, Liam, that DA is now getting some recognition for his research? He has been made a Fellow of the International Professors Project. Their objective is to foster waking up to the problems facing society. Their Google Group Senescence of civilization has the objective of developing the Excel spread sheet that DA has produced. It could well become a powerful, credible, transparent tool to help people, including politicians, make sound decisions for coping with the inevitable powering down.

As you can see, Liam, I have a lot on my plate! It keeps me mentally active and out of mischief. However, I also like to know how my grandchildren are getting on. I enjoyed watching you in the Youth Choir Concert with Ashleigh and Jordan. I hope I will be able to watch Benjamin and Luke  bowl in the new season.  For now, Happy Birthday from Laprin and me.

Grandpa