Luke's 11th Birthday message
Happy Birthday Luke. This dissertation is our birthday
present for you. You also now have some
more Frituck shares in palladium. You might think it is not much of a present
but if you think through what Laprin has to say, it will help you to make good
decisions in the difficult times ahead. My generation enjoyed a free lunch now
your generation is going to have to pay
for it, and it will not be cheap!
I hope you have a happy
eleventh birthday, Luke, despite that bit of sour reality from DA. I expect
that you know enough about what is happening in this crazy world to take what
DA and I have to say with a pinch of salt. Actually, a pinch of salt is better
for your health than the garbage Brumby and Baillieu have been dispensing.
Surprisingly, a few politicians are throwing in some sense about food. People can
get quite upset when they do not get enough to eat. Billions are having that
problem in far off lands but we only occasionally hear about that in our media,
until now. The many Japanese, Libyians, Egyptians and Tunisians are making
their demands known with the help of their cell phones. Did you know that a lot
of Brits and Americans are also demonstrating about what has gone wrong. Quite
a few of them are young people who have been to University, got a degree and
now cannot get a job.
That’s terrible, isn’t it, Luke. Especially as the few who
are really rich are looked up to on the media. We have a society that believes
it is better to make money by fair means or foul than to do what is good for
the population at large and for the environment.
I expect Luke now
understands what problems are developing because of the prominence given to
wealth. What happened in Pakistan due to the floods is an example of what has
been happening regularly in many countries for ages. Of course, the floods in
Queensland and Victoria have hit the headlines here but many other unexpected
climate events around the world do not rate a mention on our TV. Did you know
Brazil and Sri Lanka had very bad flooding at the same time as Queensland? And
the wild fires in Russia were a lot worse than Black Saturday here. The Greens have
pointed out for years that Australia’s turn is coming but many did not listen
to them because the Greens are more concerned with what is happening to the
environment than most people. The city folk rule the roost – while the country
folk continue to send them food. They will be changing their tune soon. There
are signs that the British and Americans proletariat (workers) are learning
from the revolutions in the Middle East.
Laprin, did you know that Luke is doing well in cricket. I
expect he is trying to do as well as Benjamin.
That is marvellous, Luke.
Having stimulating activities like that
combined with the joy of family and friends will give you a quality of living despite
the coming problems. Keep those good things in mind when you have troubles. End
of lecture! We had better move on to what is happening and what it is telling
us. The Victorian election had the politicians making a lot of promises.
Brumby and Baillieu had having an
interesting talk fest with the Greens as well as making those promises.
Doubtless you will be able to look back in a few years and wonder how they
could possibly have made those promises. Of course, they always talk in terms
of the money cost without consideration of what is really possible, given the
real ecological cost. Now back to
Laprin.
I expect that we are
seeing political chaos because so many electors are bewildered about what is
happening and want leaders who can do something about this. There has been a
lot of talk about climate change. Our politicians have argued the toss about
what should be done about reducing fossil fuel emissions so the populace do not
know how far they should go in becoming green and what the price will be. I
expect it will be quite a few years before they realize that they have been
conned. Sadly, there is nothing Australians can do about stopping global
warming. Stopping emissions from the power plants and planting trees will have
essentially no influence on the rapid climate change that is already have a big
impact around the world. Even if the big emitters such as China and the US cut
back rapidly, it would only slow down the warming slightly. Our parties, including the Greens, would do a
lot better by following the advice of the Greenhouse Office and institute measures to adapt to the irrevocable
rapid climate change. The past drought
could well have been made worse by climate change but the politicians have
dropped that off their agenda since we have gone from drought to floods in
recent months. They ignore the fact that this is almost certainly due to a la
Nina that will end shortly. We can probably look forward to another dry spell
with the catchment levels dropping again and the Murray-Darling problem
re-surfacing. However, the politicians have put these matters in the too hard
basket as they strive to retain their cushy jobs in parliament.
I expect there has been quite a bit of discussion at your
school about these topics. I would be interested in knowing the attitude of
your teachers. Do they have more understanding of what is happening than the
politicians? Do they tell you about the dangers in fast food? Do they talk
about multiculturism and the refugees from countries that have real
environmental and social problems?
I notice that in
America there is an emerging ‘slow food’ movement. They tell of the many toxic
products used in the fast foods to provide the taste that sells! They say that
it is not surprising that cancer, diabetes and other health problems are
growing rapidly, particularly in the young.
I read recently about a prominent American actor who was
worried about this issue. He avoided fast food and had what he considered was a
healthy diet but he wanted to be sure that he did not have any problems. He
paid a large sum of money to have his blood
analysed. He was horrified to learn that there were many toxic products in
his bloodstream, even though he avoided the fast food.
It is not surprising
that life expectancy is declining in America. It is ironic that ‘fast foods’
originated in the States and have spread globally. McDonalds are opening up numerous
outlets in China as many of the increasingly wealthy Chinese turn from their
traditional healthy foods in pursuit of the life style they see on TV. Now some
of the Americans are reversing direction with the ‘slow food’ revolution. I
wonder how long it will be before the Chinese wake up to what they are doing
wrong with what they eat.
Of course, Luke, most Chinese are poor and live in rural
communities and have the traditional diet based on rice because they cannot
afford the sort of food that the middle classes in the cities can now partake
of in restaurants and from fast food outlets. Most Australians still seem to be entranced
with the American way of life they see on TV.
DA, I believe we
should move on in order to provide perspective. There has been little in the
media in recent times on the oil supply problem. This is because the price of fuel has not
shot up yet. But that will come. Did you know, Luke, that about four hundred billion barrels
of oil have gone up in smoke in your lifetime? That is a lot of irreplaceable
natural capital that people have blithely used in cars, trucks, ships,
airliners and in the production of food. There seems to be the common belief
that there is an inexhaustible supply. We know better than that, don’t we, Luke. Microbes working hard underground took
millions of years to convert biomass to oil. Now, Homo sapiens delight in
destroying that benevolence from nature.
We have mentioned the oil problem before and you may wonder
why you have not seen more indications of the warnings we have been making.
There are numerous signs that people and industry are waking up to this problem
although they do not say it is because oil is running out.
I expect bike riding
is becoming more popular for a number of reasons, including reducing the use of
cars because petrol price has risen so they save a bit as the economy tightens.
They are not doing it because they realize that oil is running out. Big cars
are becoming less popular amongst the public and even electric cars are making
an appearance. These trends will continue but they will be driven by pricing
and the general view of what is happening. They lack the understanding that I
expect you now have, Luke, that the days of easy motorized transport are
declining for fundamental reasons, oil is running out and what is left is hard
to extract. It is ironic that the
Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has not woken many
people up to the fact that oil is running out. But that is enough about oil for
now.
Hang on, Laprin! There is an interesting aspect you have not
mentioned. As you know, Luke, there has been a lot of talk about the impact of
the mining boom in this country. Companies are making a lot of money by mining
iron ore, coal, uranium and other minerals for export, largely to China. The
mining, transportation and processing of the ore requires a lot of heavy
machinery using a lot of fuel, mainly diesel. They will be running into
problems in the near future as the price rises.
That is very true,
DA, as the shortage of fuel will be a world-wide problem so money will not be
the answer for many. The Chinese will want to get their fair share despite what
the Americans are doing in the Middle East to make up for the fact that they
have used up most of their own supply. Moving on now to other matters, I am
sure Luke knows a lot about iPhones and all the other electronic gadgetry
flooding the market.
I am bemused by most of it and often have to get help from
Jacqui and Liam. However, I expect that Laprin has raised this issue for
another reason.
Quite right, DA. The
manufacture of this gadgetry requires the supply of many materials, including
what are called the rare earth minerals. There are quite a few of them and they
play a crucial role and they are running out. The Chinese are the main source
of these minerals and they now want most of their production for their
developing industry. Businesses in
countries such as Australia are looking at mining these minerals but it is a
difficult business using a lot of energy and other resources that are becoming
scarce. I have no doubt that there are many earnest people looking at how this
problem can be overcome but it is quite certain that there will be problems in
the electronic industry and the era of ever-new electronic gadgetry will come
to an end. How will people cope, Luke, when it is very difficult to do on line
trading so you have to go to the few remaining shops but you can no longer
afford to run a car? Don’t you think it would be a good idea to rapidly improve
public transport?
Leaving aside the fun and games young people have with these
electronics, think about how dependent businesses and the general community
have become on their computers, mobile phones and other electronics. What will they do as this capability declines
because some of the replacement materials are running out? A lot of fuss is
being made about the introduction of digital TV but I wonder what will be
happening by the time you are building up your career and establishing a home
for your family. The government is talking about paying out a lot of money to
install the National Broadband Network. People will get used to it then it will
have aged so much that it needs to be replaced but there is not enough material
to replace it!
That is the type of
horrifying situation your generation will have to face. We hope these
discussions will help you to make good decisions in the troubling times to
come. I think, DA, that we have given Luke enough to think about. There will be
many problems emerging that are beyond the ken of the ’leaders’ of society. You
have described in The Way Ahead what
can be done to cope with the trying times ahead. Your Gaia and Tityas is now available as an ebook and on kindle soon so,
hopefully, many people will be able to gain some understanding of what lies
ahead from what your research has uncovered.
My main legacy will be my writings, even if most of them do
not get published. Which reminds me, I have better get on with editing What went wrong? The misdirection of
civilization. The publishers are being patient but I would like to see it as
a book so at least family and friends can have as a memento of my research. The
Frituck shares could well become a worthwhile financial legacy as the economy
goes into decline. I often wonder how the politicians will explain what went
wrong. No doubt, they will come up with some spiel while still enjoying the use
of a government car! I have posted an essay by Laprin in which he describes the
eight fundamental features of how our world works. It is called Laprin’s Leaks as he believes it will
help people to understand reality, so make better decisions.
Thanks, DA, for your
support. Hopefully, it will wake a few people up. The growing social
revolutions are the response of the disadvantaged to what their leaders have
done. They have yet to understand that human society has gone too far in its devastation of the
environment. There is no turning back so most of the large population of
youngsters have nothing to look forward to. What about your latest book, DA. It
appeared at the Beijing Book Show and is now an ebook and on kindle? Does Luke
know about it?
I sent a copy of one of the essays in it, The Way Ahead, to the family some time
ago. I have had no feedback so I do not know whether anyone has read it. It is
not too long and makes some suggestions about how to cope with the powering
down. The Book Show was last August. The Chinese may show some interest in due
course.
Did you know, Luke,
that DA is now getting some recognition for his research? He has been made a
Fellow of the International Professors Project. Their objective is to foster
waking up to the problems facing society. Their Google Group Senescence of civilization has the
objective of developing the Excel spread sheet that DA has produced. It could
well become a powerful, credible, transparent tool to help people, including
politicians, make sound decisions for coping with the inevitable powering down.
As you can see, Luke, I have a lot on my plate! It keeps me
mentally active and out of mischief. However, I also like to know how my
grandchildren are getting on. I enjoyed watching Liam in the Youth Choir
Concert with you and Benjamin. I hope I will be able to watch Benjamin and Luke
bowl this season. For now, Happy
Birthday from Laprin and me.
Grandpa
posted by Denis Frith | 6:15 PM
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